Domain: Human Capital Economics
How educational attainment, cognitive skills, and schooling investment shape GDP growth, productivity, and economic development at the country level.
Temporal scope: 1950-present | Population: Sovereign states (country-year, 100-150 countries)
Key Findings
- Years of schooling loses significance once cognitive skills are controlled for — quantity without quality doesn’t drive growth. (null, moderate)
- Global average private return to one year of schooling is ~9% per year across 1,120 estimates in 139 countries. (positive, strong)
- Cognitive skills measured by international test scores are more strongly predictive of economic growth than years of schooling alone, with one standard deviation in test scores associated with 2 percentage points higher annual GDP growth (positive, strong)
- Global average private returns to an additional year of schooling are approximately 9 percent per year, with returns highest in Sub-Saharan Africa and for primary education (positive, strong)
- One SD increase in cognitive skills test scores associated with ~2 pp higher annual GDP growth. Robust to IV identification. (positive, strong)
- Augmented Solow model including human capital explains ~80% of cross-country income variance vs 59% for baseline. Human capital coefficient positive and significant. (positive, strong)