Onset of civil conflict following successful coups. Bell & Sudduth (2015) find coups during ongoing civil wars are common and alter war dynamics. Thyne (2015) shows coups increase the hazard of civil war onset. Roessler (2011, 2016) demonstrates the 'coup-civil war trap' in Africa where ethnic exclusion from the military trades coup risk for insurgency risk, creating an intractable dilemma.