Whether a successful coup leads to democratic transition within a defined period (typically 5-10 years). Marinov & Goemans (2014) find post-Cold War coups increasingly lead to competitive elections. Thyne & Powell (2014) show coups against autocracies are more likely to produce democratization than coups against democracies. Derpanopoulos et al. (2016) challenge this, finding coups rarely produce durable democracy. The debate remains active.