Browse PAX
30 PAX available
Algorithmic Fairness
Measurement and mitigation of bias in ML prediction systems. Covers impossibility theorems (Chouldechova, Kleinberg), facial recognition bias (Buolamwini & Gebru), and accuracy-fairness tradeoffs in criminal justice risk assessment.
Cao 2025 Personalist Rebel Sponsorship
Investigates when external sponsor states provide direct combat support to rebel groups in civil conflicts. Argues that personalist regime type of the target state drives sponsors toward troop/combat support (vs. other forms) through three mechanisms: perception of the target as aggressive and unreliable, military ineffectiveness due to coup-proofing, and international isolation reducing reputational costs. Tests against NAGs triad-year data 1945-2010. Unit of analysis: sponsor-rebel group-target triad-year.
Causal Inference Toolkit
Cross-domain causal inference methods PAX. Bundles DID, PSM, and IV engines with documented use cases from minimum wage, microfinance, and institutional quality domains.
Credit Risk ML
Machine learning approaches to credit default prediction. Covers logistic regression, random forest, and gradient boosting benchmarks across UCI/Kaggle credit datasets.
Customer Segmentation RFM
Customer segmentation using RFM (Recency, Frequency, Monetary) analysis. Compares K-means and DBSCAN clustering approaches.
Democratic peace theory
Democratic peace theory — why democracies rarely fight each other and how regime type, economic interdependence, and international organizations jointly reduce militarized interstate disputes. Built on Doyle (1986), Maoz & Russett (1993), Oneal & Russett (1999), and Gartzke (2007).
Dukalskis Et Al 2024 Transnational Repression
First large-N quantitative study of domestic drivers of transnational repression (TR). Tests the hypothesis that authoritarian crackdowns at home increase the subsequent likelihood of the same state repressing its citizens abroad. Uses the Authoritarian Actions Abroad Database (AAAD, ~1,205 events, 1991-2019) across 88 authoritarian regimes in a country-year panel.
Economic Growth Panel
Determinants of long-run economic growth including physical capital accumulation, human capital, population growth, and total factor productivity. Built on Solow (1956), Barro (1991), and Mankiw-Romer-Weil (1992).
Economic impacts of climate change
Economic impacts of climate change — how temperature and precipitation affect GDP growth, agricultural yields, and long-run development. Built on Dell, Jones & Olken (2012), Burke, Hsiang & Miguel (2015), Nordhaus (2018), Hsiang et al. (2017), and Schlenker & Roberts (2009).
Fearon & Laitin (2003) "Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War"
Fearon & Laitin (2003) "Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War" — foundational paper on civil war onset. Challenges ethnic grievance explanations, finds insurgency-opportunity factors (poverty, terrain, weak states) are stronger predictors.
Global Food Insecurity
Global food insecurity: measurement frameworks (FIES, IPC, PoU, GHI), determinants at country and subnational scales, climate and conflict drivers, and geospatial variation in hunger and malnutrition outcomes. Bridges nutrition/stunting, poverty, and climate impact domains.
Global Gender Gap
Gender inequality across economic participation, education, health, and political empowerment — what drives convergence and where gaps persist. Built on World Economic Forum Gender Gap Index, World Bank Gender Statistics, UNDP Gender Inequality Index, and Goldin's convergence thesis. Data covers 146 countries annually since 2006 with 14 sub-indicators.
Happiness Economics
Subjective wellbeing and its economic, social, and institutional determinants. Based on the World Happiness Report 2023 framework: GDP per capita, social support, healthy life expectancy, freedom of choice, generosity, and perceptions of corruption as the six key predictors of national life satisfaction.
Health Outcomes Global
Relationship between health spending and population health outcomes including life expectancy, infant mortality, and the contested role of public vs private expenditure. Built on WHO Commission (2001), Filmer & Pritchett (1999), and Cutler, Deaton & Lleras-Muney (2006).
Housing Price Regularization
Hedonic pricing models for residential real estate. Demonstrates regularization (LASSO/Ridge/Elastic Net) for variable selection with high-dimensional housing features.
Indirect Governance Rebel Support
Explains state sponsors' choice between 'hands-on' delegation and 'hands-off' orchestration in indirect wars. Develops a governor's dilemma theory of rebel support modes and tests it with UCDP External Support Dataset 1975-2009. Key finding: ethnic ties and rebel competition favor orchestration; rivalry favors delegation; and counterintuitively, sponsor capabilities increase orchestration likelihood.
Institutional quality and economic development
Institutional quality and economic development — how property rights, rule of law, corruption control, and democratic governance shape long-run per capita income. Built on Acemoglu, Johnson & Robinson (2001), North (1990), Rodrik et al. (2004), Kaufmann et al. (2010), and Mauro (1995).
Military Coup Prediction
Determinants, risk factors, and prediction of military coups d'état. Covers structural conditions (economic, political, institutional), civil-military relations, coup-proofing strategies, ethnic dimensions of military loyalty, and quantitative forecasting models. Draws on the Powell & Thyne coup dataset (1950-present) and the broader comparative politics literature on regime instability.
Rebel Sponsorship Civilian Abuse
Explains why externally sponsored rebel groups engage in more civilian abuse through a principal-agent framework. External funding creates moral hazard by reducing rebel need for civilian cooperation; but sponsor characteristics (democracy, human rights lobbies) and competition among multiple principals moderate this effect. Tested with negative binomial regression on count data of one-sided violence, dyad-year structure.
Returns to education and human capital economics
Returns to education and human capital economics — how educational attainment, cognitive skills, and schooling investment shape GDP growth and economic development. Built on Mankiw, Romer & Weil (1992), Psacharopoulos & Patrinos (2018), Hanushek & Woessmann (2012), Card (1995), and Barro (2001).
Rivalry Nag Cooperation
Explains why states in strategic rivalries choose to support non-state armed groups (NAGs) targeting their rivals. Develops a rational choice model of rivalry management via indirect confrontation using frustration and opportunity game typologies. Tests with original triad-year data covering 175 NAGs and 83 state supporters, 1946-2001. Key finding: strategic rivalry increases NAG support probability by ~300%; state-NAG cooperation escalates rivalry conflicts.
Sleep Cognition Productivity
How sleep duration and quality affect cognitive performance, decision-making, and economic productivity — the neuroscience and economics of sleep deprivation. Built on Walker, Dinges, Gibson & Shrader, Hafner et al. Data from ATUS (American Time Use Survey, 200K+ respondents), NHANES sleep modules, Fitbit/wearable population studies, and natural experiments using daylight saving time shifts. The most data-rich domain nobody packages: sleep is measured at population scale but rarely linked to economic outcomes.
Social determinants of health
Social determinants of health — how income, education, housing, social support, and neighborhood environment shape health outcomes and drive health inequalities. Built on Berkman & Syme (1979), Marmot (2005), Cutler & Lleras-Muney (2010), Chetty et al. (2016), and Holt-Lunstad et al. (2015).
Sports Performance
Statistical analysis of team performance, Elo ratings, and win probability in professional sports. Tests domain-agnosticism with a deliberately non-academic domain.
Survival Analysis Clinical
Clinical survival analysis PAX covering lung cancer, HIV, transplant, ICU, and cardiovascular domains. Bundles KM and Cox PH engines with survival-specific constructs.
UCDP External Support Dataset
Introduces the UCDP External Support Dataset (ESD) covering external support to warring parties in armed conflicts 1975-2017. Presents three key empirical trends: dramatic increase in number of supporters, shift to pro-government interventions post-9/11, and rise of direct military intervention as predominant support mode. Supersedes the Högbladh, Pettersson & Themnér (2011) dataset with expanded coverage including non-state supporters and ten support type dimensions.
When and why groups outthink individuals
When and why groups outthink individuals — the science of collective intelligence. Covers Woolley's c-factor (group IQ), Surowiecki's wisdom of crowds conditions, diversity-ability tradeoffs (Page), prediction markets, and the breakdown conditions where groups become dumber than their members. Bridges organizational psychology, decision science, and complexity theory.
Why cities make people more productive and what the limits are
Why cities make people more productive and what the limits are — agglomeration economies, knowledge spillovers, sorting, and congestion costs. Built on Glaeser, Moretti, Duranton & Puga, and Combes. Data from OECD Metropolitan Database (650+ metro areas), US Census urban-rural panels, and European city-level wage regressions. Covers the urban wage premium, innovation clustering, housing affordability tradeoffs, and remote work disruption.
Why false beliefs persist even after correction
Why false beliefs persist even after correction — the cognitive science of misinformation. Covers the continued influence effect, the debunked "backfire effect," inoculation theory, source credibility decay, and the illusory truth effect. Integrates experimental psychology, communication science, and computational propaganda research to map when and why corrections fail.