Climate Conflict Food Nexus

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) or Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) measuring meteorological drought intensity. Negative values indicate drought; values below -2.0 indicate extreme drought. Key trigger for crop failure in rain-fed agricultural systems.

Agricultural production shortfall relative to 5-year moving average. Captures acute food supply shocks from weather, pests, or conflict. Directly links climate variability to food availability.

Dependence on climate-sensitive livelihoods (rain-fed farming, pastoralism, fishing) without diversification or buffering capacity. High vulnerability means climate shocks translate directly to food insecurity and displacement.

Competition over scarce natural resources (water, pasture, arable land) as a driver of communal violence and armed conflict. Intensified by climate change reducing resource availability and demographic pressure increasing demand.

Occurrence of food-price-triggered social unrest, protests, or riots. Food price spikes have historically triggered political instability — the 2007-08 and 2010-11 global food price crises sparked unrest in 30+ countries and contributed to the Arab Spring.

Population movement driven primarily by environmental degradation, climate variability, or extreme weather events. Includes both internal displacement and cross-border migration. World Bank estimates 216 million internal climate migrants by 2050 under pessimistic scenarios.

Violence between pastoralist and farming communities driven by resource scarcity, particularly in the Sahel, Horn of Africa, and Central Africa. Droughts compress pastoral range, forcing herders into farming areas. A key transmission mechanism from climate stress to armed violence.

The interaction of multiple simultaneous stressors — climate shock + conflict + economic downturn + pandemic — that overwhelm coping capacity. Compounding effects are non-linear: each additional shock disproportionately increases food insecurity. The COVID-19 pandemic layered onto existing climate and conflict crises illustrates this dynamic.

Economic productivity peaks at ~13C and declines nonlinearly above that threshold, for both rich and poor countries.

Unmitigated warming projected to reduce average global incomes by ~23% by 2100 and widen global inequality.

The global relationship between temperature and economic output is strongly nonlinear — productivity peaks at approximately 13°C mean annual temperature and declines sharply at higher temperatures.

Unmitigated warming could reduce global GDP by 23% by 2100 relative to a no-warming scenario, with poor tropical countries projected to lose 75% or more of GDP.

Expert elicitation of 11 leading climate-conflict researchers concludes climate variability has influenced 3-20% of armed conflict risk over the past century, and this influence will grow substantially under 2-4C warming scenarios. The pathway is indirect: climate affects conflict through food insecurity, economic shocks, and displacement, not directly.

Meta-analysis of 55 studies finds that a 1 standard deviation increase in temperature is associated with a 2.4% increase in interpersonal violence and a 11.3% increase in intergroup conflict. Effects are strongest in agricultural economies and conflict-prone regions.

Extreme rainfall deviations (both drought and excess) significantly increase the likelihood of social conflict events in Africa. Water scarcity increases communal conflict and civil unrest; excess rainfall can also trigger violence through displacement and crop damage.

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