Domain: Education Systems and Learning Outcomes
How education spending, access, and quality affect learning outcomes, human capital formation, and economic returns
Temporal scope: 1990-present | Population: Countries worldwide
Key Findings
- One SD increase in cognitive skills test scores associated with ~2 pp higher annual GDP growth. Robust to IV identification. (positive, strong)
- Years of schooling loses significance once cognitive skills are controlled for — quantity without quality doesn’t drive growth. (null, moderate)
- Global average private return to one year of schooling is ~9% per year across 1,120 estimates in 139 countries. (positive, strong)
- Cognitive skills (test scores) are far more important for economic growth than years of schooling, with beta approximately 0.6 on growth versus beta approximately 0.1 for years of schooling. (positive, strong)
- School quality (proxied by test scores) explains most of cross-country variation in growth rates, not school quantity. A one standard deviation increase in test scores is associated with approximately 2 percentage points higher annual GDP growth. (positive, strong)
- Cognitive skills measured by international test scores are more strongly predictive of economic growth than years of schooling alone, with one standard deviation in test scores associated with 2 percentage points higher annual GDP growth (positive, strong)
- Global average private returns to an additional year of schooling are approximately 9 percent per year, with returns highest in Sub-Saharan Africa and for primary education (positive, strong)
- Pupil-teacher ratio is negatively associated with learning outcomes in developing countries, though the effect size is smaller than often assumed and depends on teacher quality (negative, moderate)