Domain: International Trade and Globalization
How trade openness tariff policy and global value chain participation affect economic growth inequality and development
Temporal scope: 1960-present | Population: Countries worldwide
Key Findings
- Natural resource abundance negatively predicts economic growth (beta=-0.09, p<.01 on resource exports/GDP), controlling for initial income, openness, investment, and rule of law. (negative, strong)
- Resource-rich economies suffer from Dutch disease: resource booms appreciate the real exchange rate and crowd out manufacturing, reducing long-run growth potential. (negative, moderate)
- Trade openness is positively associated with GDP per capita growth but the relationship is sensitive to instrumental variable choice and estimation method (positive, moderate)
- Tariff reductions are associated with faster economic growth in developing countries particularly in the post-1990 liberalization period (negative, moderate)
- Global value chain participation is positively associated with manufacturing productivity growth through technology transfer and specialization gains (positive, moderate)
- Terms of trade volatility is negatively associated with economic growth in commodity-dependent economies through investment uncertainty channels (negative, strong)