Disruption Simulation & Scenario Analysis

Simulation Data Quality Gate

action data_quality_gateon fail: abort

config (3 keys)

{
  "min_nodes": 20,
  "require_network": true,
  "require_process_times": true
}

Baseline DES — Normal Operations

engine discrete_event_simulation

config (4 keys)

{
  "kpis": [
    "fill_rate",
    "total_cost",
    "average_lead_time"
  ],
  "n_replications": 100,
  "network_source": "supply_chain_graph",
  "simulation_horizon": 365
}

Scenario: Pandemic Facility Closures

engine discrete_event_simulation←baseline_simulation

config (5 keys)

{
  "closure_duration_days": [
    30,
    60,
    90
  ],
  "closure_probability": 0.3,
  "n_replications": 100,
  "scenario": "pandemic",
  "staggered_reopening": true
}

expected results (1 key)

{
  "revenue_loss_pct": {
    "min_value": 15
  }
}

Scenario: Trade Restriction / Sanctions

engine discrete_event_simulation←baseline_simulation

config (4 keys)

{
  "affected_regions": [
    "specified_at_runtime"
  ],
  "n_replications": 100,
  "restriction_severity": [
    0.5,
    0.75,
    1
  ],
  "scenario": "trade_restriction"
}

System Dynamics — Bullwhip Effect Analysis

engine system_dynamics

config (5 keys)

{
  "demand_shock_pct": 10,
  "echelons": 4,
  "information_sharing": [
    false,
    true
  ],
  "model_type": "beer_game",
  "simulation_horizon": 52
}

expected results (1 key)

{
  "demand_amplification_ratio": {
    "min_value": 2
  }
}

Mitigation Strategy Comparison

action analyze←pandemic_scenario, geopolitical_scenario, bullwhip_dynamics

config (3 keys)

{
  "compare_across_scenarios": true,
  "cost_benefit_analysis": true,
  "strategies": [
    "dual_sourcing",
    "increased_inventory",
    "nearshoring",
    "information_sharing"
  ]
}