Replicate Avant & Neu (2019) — Table 2: PMSCs and Civil War Duration

AR2013 Baseline — Competition Variables Only (Table 2, Model 1)

action engine

config (3 keys)

{
  "duration": "civil_war_duration",
  "outcome": "conflict_terminated",
  "predictors": [
    "pmsc_competition",
    "gdp_per_capita",
    "ethnic_fractionalization",
    "ethnic_wars",
    "conflict_intensity",
    "mountainous_terrain",
    "polity",
    "proportion_of_forces",
    "support_rebels",
    "support_government"
  ]
}

expected results (1 key)

{
  "pmsc_competition": {
    "direction": "positive",
    "hazard_ratio": 1.294,
    "p_threshold": 0.05
  }
}

PSED Substitution — Event Counts Replace Competition (Table 2, Model 2)

action engine←ar2013_baselinecompare_to_kb

config (3 keys)

{
  "duration": "civil_war_duration",
  "outcome": "conflict_terminated",
  "predictors": [
    "pmsc_government_event_count",
    "pmsc_rebel_event_count",
    "gdp_per_capita",
    "ethnic_fractionalization",
    "ethnic_wars",
    "conflict_intensity",
    "mountainous_terrain",
    "polity",
    "proportion_of_forces",
    "support_rebels",
    "support_government"
  ]
}

expected results (1 key)

{
  "pmsc_government_event_count": {
    "attaches_finding": "pmsc_govt_events_shorten_civil_war_30pct",
    "direction": "positive",
    "hazard_ratio": 1.299,
    "p_threshold": 0.001
  }
}

Horse Race — Both Sets of Variables (Table 2, Model 3)

action engine←psed_substitutioncompare_to_kb

config (3 keys)

{
  "duration": "civil_war_duration",
  "outcome": "conflict_terminated",
  "predictors": [
    "pmsc_competition",
    "pmsc_government_event_count",
    "pmsc_rebel_event_count",
    "gdp_per_capita",
    "ethnic_fractionalization",
    "ethnic_wars",
    "conflict_intensity",
    "mountainous_terrain",
    "polity",
    "proportion_of_forces",
    "support_rebels",
    "support_government"
  ]
}

expected results (2 keys)

{
  "pmsc_competition": {
    "attaches_finding": "pmsc_competition_attenuated_when_events_controlled",
    "direction": "null",
    "hazard_ratio": 1.086,
    "p_threshold": 0.05
  },
  "pmsc_government_event_count": {
    "direction": "positive",
    "hazard_ratio": 1.307,
    "p_threshold": 0.05
  }
}